Marlborough Recovery Update, Friday 5 May 2023

Marlborough Sounds Future Access Study update

Work by engineering consultancy Stantec to prepare a business case on behalf of Council and Waka Kotahi to fund a future-proof transport network in the Sounds is moving ahead.

Mayor Nadine Taylor said it was a very complex piece of work, but progress was being made.

“Public consultation in February saw over 500 people attend meetings and over 900 fill out a survey. Stantec and Council have also talked with iwi and stakeholders like DOC, Marlborough Lines, the emergency services and community associations.”

“Stantec is using the community’s feedback and a range of technical criteria to inform potential future transport options for the Sounds. Council expects to be in a position soon to propose an indicative preferred option for each of five areas in the Sounds:

• Rai Valley to French Pass, including Tennyson Inlet and D’Urville Island
• Pelorus including Kaiuma Bay Road
• Kenepuru Road and the outer Sounds
• Queen Charlotte Drive; and
• Port Underwood.”

She said Stantec was studying a wide range of factors.

“They are assessing the Sounds’ geography, geology and natural hazards including earthquake risk and sea level rise. They’ve looked closely at the economy and community well-being, sought to predict future travel demand and examined the potential for investing in infrastructure to potentially expand marine-based transport options.”

She said Stantec had identified 29 options across the five geographic areas of the Sounds in response to the evidence gathered. The options align with the guidance provided by the Government’s climate change National Adaptation Plan.

“Stantec has advised us that each part of the Sounds has four or five options for road and marine transport. The options look different in each area due to the diverse geographic conditions and underlying hazard susceptibility.

“However, we want to further progress this work over the next few weeks so that we can bring a clear indicative option for each area to the public for the next phase of consultation, in mid to late June.”

“The business case - with a costed option for each area - is being developed for Council and Waka Kotahi to consider. Each organisation has its own decision-making processes. For Council, any significant changes will mean further public consultation is required under the Local Government Act.”

“As Council we hope to show the public what our indicative option will be by mid to late June. We plan to run drop-in meetings around the Sounds and in Blenheim and explain what we’re proposing, and the likely cost of each option.”

“Then the case will be made to Waka Kotahi for funding. I hope the Government will give serious consideration to a high financial assistance rate or a bespoke solution for the Sounds.”

“The estimate of the cost of the damage to our transport network from the 2021 and 2022 storms runs well into the hundreds of millions of dollars. The Marlborough ratepaying community is unlikely to accept large rates increases to repair rural roads that may be subject to further severe weather events. We have to take a case to the Government via the Waka Kotahi business case process,” Mayor Taylor said.

“Unfortunately for affected homeowners and businesses in the Sounds, there is still a long way to go before we’ll have a fully-fledged, costed and funded plan. I know there is nothing worse than uncertainty and my heart goes out to residents and businesses who currently feel they are in limbo.”

“The only plus in this whole process is that it gives everyone the chance to take a long, hard look at what a safe and resilient transport in the Sounds could look like in the long term. My hope is that the Government will come to the party and help us build a road and marine network that is far more resilient than the old one was.”

Future Access Study survey results

Data collected in the survey is being used in the business case to provide context on the demographics of each area and how the weather events impacted businesses, individuals, transport systems, utilities and accessibility. It has also been used to inform the economic case and will help with the selection of a preferred option.

The public survey was open from 31 January to 22 February 2023. A total of 919 surveys were completed; 733 (80%) were residents, 29 (3%) were businesses and 157 (17%) were both residents and businesses.

Key findings about physical and mental health and business confidence reported by respondents were that mental health scores decreased more significantly than physical health. Business owners’ level of confidence in their business continuing as a going concern dropped from 8.8 prior to the storms to 6.1 after the storms.

Business impacts

Industries with the largest representation were agriculture, forestry and fishing at 22%. Accommodation and food services, and professional, scientific and technical had the second largest representation at 12% each.

There were 187 respondents to the business question. Of this, 121 (65%) noted a negative impact on their business while 55 (29%) said there was no noticeable change.

Thirty-one respondents (17%) said they had a 50% reduction in their perception of their business’ viability; 40 respondents (22%) said they noticed a 20% to 30% reduction and 11 people (6%) said they noticed a 40% reduction; another 6% noted a 10% reduction. Nine people (5%) noted a 70% reduction in confidence of their business’ survival. 11 people or 6% noticed a positive effect on their business.

182 respondents said costs for their business had increased; 78 (43%) said there was an increase in costs of between 10% and 25%; 48 businesses (26%) said there was no noticeable change. Seventeen businesses (9%) said there was an increase in costs of 25% to 50% and six businesses (3%) said the increase in cost was from zero to 10%.

116 businesses (62%) said they couldn’t access supplies when the road network was inaccessible. 113 businesses (61%) said that their visitors/guests/customers could not access the business. Eighty businesses (43%) had difficulty getting their product to market and 65 businesses (35%) said their staff could not access the business.

Mental health impacts

237 people responded to the question asking them to rank their mental health prior to the weather events and afterwards. The results were consistent across the Sounds – respondents’ perception was that quality of mental health had decreased significantly, with an increase in stress and anxiety.

In Kenepuru/Queen Charlotte Drive: 70% said the weather events had had a negative impact on the quality of their mental health. Of that 70%, 20% noted that the reduction in the quality of their mental health was as high as 30%.

In Rai Valley/French Pass: 67% noted a reduction in the quality of their mental health. 17% noted as much as a 30% reduction.

In Pelorus: 50% of respondents noted a negative impact on the quality of their mental health. 17% of these people said the negative impact was as high as 50%.

In Port Underwood: 53% noted a reduction in the quality of their mental health. 13% said the reduction was as high as 50%, and 27% said the reduction was as high as 20%.

Physical health impacts

There were 236 respondents to the physical health impact question. Fifty four per cent noted no difference in the quality of their physical health, 40% noted a decrease and 5% noted an increase in the quality of their physical health.

In Kenepuru/Queen Charlotte Drive: 46% said the perceived quality of physical health had decreased. Of that area, 16% noted the reduction was as high as 20%.

In Rai Valley/French Pass: 21% noted a negative impact on the quality of their physical health. 17% noted the impact to be as much as a 40% reduction.

In Pelorus: 67% of respondents noted a negative impact on the quality of their physical health. 17% of these people said the negative impact was as high as 50%.

In Port Underwood: 25% noted a reduction in the quality of their physical health. 13% said the reduction was as high as 20% and 6% said the reduction was as high as 60%.